Trust your gut instinct over spreadsheets. There are too many variables in the real world that you simply can't put into a spreadsheet. Spreadsheets spit out results from your inexact assumptions and give you a false sense of security. In most cases your heart and gut are still your best guide.
Those who have known the famous are publicly debriefed of their memories knowing as their own dusk falls that they will only be remembered for remembering someone else.